France are not an elite attacking team at this tournament. They are an elite counter-attacking team, and that distinction will cost them when the opposition stops leaving space behind.

Mbappé scored on his 100th cap against Iraq to reach 15 World Cup goals, placing him third all-time behind Pelé and Messi, level with Ronaldo. The number is extraordinary. The context is not.

Both the 3-0 win over Iraq and the 3-1 win over Senegal were built on direct transitions, not sustained positional build-up. When opponents compress transition space and sit in two disciplined defensive lines, France's attacking structure has offered almost nothing in response.

This is the same pattern that surfaced against Morocco in 2022. A side willing to absorb pressure and defend with organization can neutralize France's primary mechanism entirely.

The counter-argument writes itself: a 3-0 win is a 3-0 win, and Mbappé's goal tally proves the attack is delivering results. But Iraq and Senegal both opened space on the break, which is precisely the condition France require to function.

We have seen this script before, and we know how it ends. France meet a deep-block side in the knockout rounds, transition space disappears, and their build-up play collapses under pressure. In our view, unless the coaching staff develop an alternative attacking pattern before the quarter-finals, France are unlikely to reach the final.

This article was researched and drafted with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team.