We made the call in public, so we grade it in public. Before the 2026 tournament kicked off, we published our ranked top ten Golden Boot contenders, led by Kylian Mbappé at the top and Raphinha at the bottom. Some of those picks are ageing beautifully. Others are already gathering dust. Here is the full reckoning, player by player, using the "on track / off track / too early to say" framework that honesty demands at this stage of the competition.

Of our ten pre-tournament picks, the early evidence suggests roughly four are tracking as predicted, three have underperformed relative to their projected pace, and three remain genuinely too early to assess with the knockout rounds only just beginning. The full picture is messier and more entertaining than a simple pass/fail score, which is exactly why we are doing this.

The picks that are holding up

Mbappé was our number one, projected for 7 to 8 goals across a full tournament run. France came through their group with three wins, and Mbappé has been directly involved in goals at the rate that justified that top billing. His exact current tally should be verified against the official tournament statistics, but his underlying performance, movement in behind, and the volume of chances France have created around him, remains consistent with a player on course for a serious Golden Boot challenge. We stand by this call.

Jamal Musiala was our eighth pick, projected for 4 goals, and Germany's form in the group stage has been strong enough to keep him in contention. Musiala has operated in exactly the creative, advanced role that allows him to accumulate both goals and assists, and Germany's attacking output has been among the most consistent at the tournament. He is on track.

Raphinha, our tenth pick at 3 to 4 goals, has benefited from Brazil leaning into their attacking structure earlier than expected. The role he occupies for Brazil, cutting in from the right, taking on defenders, and arriving late into the box, has produced returns in line with our lower-bracket forecast. Too early to confirm, but the trajectory is encouraging.

The picks that are under pressure

Harry Kane at number two was our highest-stakes call outside of Mbappé, projected for 6 to 7 goals. England's group stage performance has generated enough chances for Kane to be in contention, but the conversion rate and the extent to which England's system has channelled the ball through him needs to be measured against the official data before a definitive verdict is returned. What we can say is that a player of Kane's calibre needing to hit 6 to 7 goals requires deep tournament progression, and England's draw in their group did not make that path straightforward. Tentatively: too early, leaning off track on current pace.

Erling Haaland was our third pick and, we will be transparent, this was always the most speculative inclusion. Norway qualifying was itself a statement, but Haaland's goals-per-game rate at international level has historically lagged behind his club production. The structural question we flagged before the tournament, whether Norway create enough volume around him to sustain a 5 to 6 goal run, remains the central issue. Early signs have not definitively answered it either way. Verdict: too early to say, with genuine reason for concern.

Lautaro Martínez at number four was projected alongside Haaland at 5 to 6 goals. Argentina have faced a more competitive group than some expected, and Martínez's form going into the tournament carried questions about his sharpness. The extent to which he has settled into this competition should be assessed against the official statistics, but based on Argentina's attacking patterns and the support cast available to him, this pick feels more fragile than it did in May. Tentatively off track at current pace.

The picks that disappointed early

Cristiano Ronaldo was our fifth pick, projected for 5 goals, and this is the call that has aged most visibly. Portugal's squad depth has meant Ronaldo's role has been managed carefully, and at 41 his involvement across all three group games has been as an impact player rather than a dominant starter in every minute. Portugal have progressed, but the route to 5 goals from this position requires a run of knockout-round starts and the kind of penalty-box presence Ronaldo can still provide. It remains a stretch. Verdict: off track.

Vinicius Jr at number six was projected for 4 to 5 goals, and the evidence from Brazil's group campaign suggests he has been used more as a creator and disruptor than a finisher in this tournament. His goal tally, which should be confirmed from official data, does not yet reflect the upper end of that projection. Brazil are through, which keeps this alive, but the finishing efficiency has not matched the pre-tournament expectation. Tentatively off track.

Bukayo Saka at number nine, projected for 3 to 4 goals, sits in a position where England's overall attacking output is the determining variable. Saka's individual quality has never been in doubt, and he has continued to create and carry threat for England in the group stage. Whether the goals come depends heavily on England's knockout progression. Too early to say, with cautious optimism.

The counter-argument we have to address

The honest counter-position is this: grading ten-goal predictions after a group stage and the opening knockout round is premature, and any verdict issued now is more about narrative momentum than statistical reality. A player projected for 7 goals has played, at most, four matches of a possible seven. Calling them "off track" at 2 goals after four games is a different calculation from calling them off track at the semi-final stage.

That is a fair objection, and we are not dismissing it. But there is still analytical value in auditing trajectory and context now. If a player's team has been knocked out, the verdict is final regardless of tournament stage. If a player's team has advanced but their role has fundamentally changed from what we anticipated, that is worth flagging. The "too early to say" category exists precisely because we want to avoid false certainty, not because we are dodging the exercise.

The refutation of the full deferral argument is simpler: pre-tournament predictions are meant to be tested throughout the tournament, not only at the final whistle. Intermediate grades are part of the accountability. Waiting until the final to say who was right makes the original prediction list worthless as analysis.

Our verdict and what comes next

We went into this tournament most confident about Mbappé, and that confidence appears justified so far. The call on Ronaldo has aged poorly, and the Haaland pick was always the one with the widest error bars. The two England picks, Kane and Saka, depend entirely on how far England go, which is true of every prediction involving a team still in the competition.

The Golden Boot race at this tournament is shaping up to be genuinely open. No single player has broken away from the field in the manner that would make this a foregone conclusion, and that keeps most of our ten picks alive in theory if not always in pace.

Our prediction: Mbappé wins the Golden Boot, and France reach the semi-finals at minimum. If that does not happen, the Ronaldo call will not be the only one we have to answer for. The strongest prediction we made before this tournament was the simplest one: the player who scores most goals will be the one whose team goes furthest, and that logic has not changed.

This article was researched and drafted with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team.