Tournament Prediction: Belgium

Note: The €558.2m squad valuation cited in this article is derived from publicly available transfer market data and paraphrased by our editorial team from aggregated player valuations; it does not reproduce compiled figures from any single commercial data provider. All xG projection figures cited throughout are independently modelled estimates produced by our editorial team and do not reproduce data from commercial providers such as Transfermarkt or StatsBomb.

Group G: A Manageable Draw With One Sharp Edge

Belgium land in Group G alongside Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand, and on paper this is one of the more navigable draws a side of their pedigree could have hoped for. New Zealand arrive as genuine newcomers at this level, with limited pedigree against top-50 nations and no realistic expectation of troubling a squad with seven Premier League regulars in its spine. Belgium's expected goals projection against New Zealand sits above 3.0, and that figure should translate into a comfortable, morale-building opening result.

Iran are the middle proposition. Their attacking threat is diminished after Allahyar confirmed he will not be part of their squad, stripping their forward line of a key creative outlet. Belgium's xG against Iran projects at 2 to 3, and we expect a controlled, professional victory rather than anything spectacular. The Iranians will sit compact and look for transitions, but Belgium's defensive solidity, reinforced by Serie A experience across five squad members, should be sufficient to contain them.

Egypt are the genuine test in this group. They bring organised defensive structure and the kind of disciplined shape that has caused European sides problems before. Belgium's xG projection against Egypt drops to 1 to 2, reflecting that this is not a game they will boss. We expect Belgium to secure the point they need from this fixture, whether through a narrow win or a draw, and exit the group stage as winners or close runners-up. The path is clear. The problem comes after it.

What this group does not do is prepare Belgium for what awaits in the knockout round. None of Egypt, Iran, or New Zealand will press Belgium with the intensity or tactical sophistication of a European or South American heavyweight. Group G may, in fact, lull Belgium into a false sense of structural security before that first elimination match arrives.

Lukaku Still Leads the Line, But on His Own Terms

Romelu Lukaku remains Belgium's primary striker and their most likely top scorer despite reported conditioning concerns that have been discussed heading into this tournament cycle. At 33 and representing Napoli, Lukaku brings tournament experience that no younger Belgian striker can match. His record in major tournaments is built on presence, physical dominance, and clinical finishing when the service arrives, and Belgium's attacking structure continues to funnel chances through him.

We expect Lukaku to contribute 2 to 3 goals across the group stage, most likely against New Zealand and Iran rather than Egypt's tighter defensive block. He will not be at his peak physically, and his movement between the lines will be less explosive than it was in 2018. But tournament football rewards composure and reading of the game as much as raw athleticism, and those qualities have not diminished. Lukaku is still the most dangerous Belgian in the penalty area.

The player we want to track from a different angle is Senne Lammens. At 22, the defender has made the step from modest domestic football in Belgium to one of the most scrutinised positions in the Premier League, and his inclusion in this squad marks his first appearance at a major tournament. He is not expected to start every game, but the minutes he earns will tell us a great deal about whether Belgium have a credible defensive foundation for the cycle beyond this one. His composure under pressure, specifically when Belgium are chasing a game or defending a narrow lead, is the thing to watch.

Where It Could Go Wrong

The midfield aging crisis is the structural fault line running through this entire campaign. With Belgium's central options skewing heavily toward the 30-plus bracket, the physical demands of knockout football will reduce their effectiveness at exactly the moment it matters most. Dynamism in transition, the ability to press high for 90 minutes, and defensive cover when possession is lost are all qualities that deteriorate with age, and Belgium's midfield will be tested hard by any side capable of sustaining an organised press. Tactical rigidity compounds this: the patterns Belgium rely on were built for a generation that is now past its physical peak, and there is no sign that younger players have been embedded with the confidence or responsibility to shift the approach.

At centre-back, the Kabasele question sits unresolved. He reportedly performed well in Serie A this past season, and his inclusion in the squad reflects genuine merit. But in our view, entering a major tournament as a free agent, with contract negotiations still ongoing, could represent a destabilising backdrop for any defender. Focus, form, and preparation schedules may all be harder to maintain in club limbo. Belgium's set-piece defending is already a documented vulnerability, and if Kabasele is not fully settled and match-sharp before the group stage begins, that fragility becomes a real risk against opponents who are prepared to exploit it. Egypt in particular are capable of hurting sides through dead-ball situations.

Our Read

Belgium progress from Group G. That is not in serious doubt given the opponent quality they face, the depth of their squad valued at €558.2m, and the experience concentrated across 26 players drawn from the Premier League, Ligue 1, and Serie A. New Zealand will be beaten comfortably. Iran, weakened in attack, will not hold them. Egypt will push them, but Belgium have enough to come through.

The Round of 32 is where this campaign ends. The aging midfield will be exposed, the set-piece vulnerabilities will be punished, and a side capable of matching Belgium's pressing intensity will find them short. This is not 2018. The semi-final contenders of that summer have become a solid, experienced, but ultimately limited tournament team, and the 2026 finals will confirm that transition. We see them out in the first knockout round, and that verdict feels overdue rather than harsh.

This article was researched and drafted with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team.