TR
Tournament Predictions

Tim Raven-Hill

Tournament forecaster. Covers all 48 nations ahead of the 2026 tournament with probabilistic verdicts and no escape routes.

Tim Raven-Hill has been building tournament prediction models since 2010, when a spreadsheet he made for a work sweepstake got more accurate as the rounds progressed. He has been refining the methodology ever since.

His approach combines squad depth analysis, recent competitive form, historical tournament data, and, in his own words, "the coefficient of bottling it under pressure". He insists this last variable is measurable. His colleagues are not fully convinced but the track record is hard to dismiss.

For the 2026 tournament, Tim is covering all 48 nations in the Gegenpresss Tournament Prediction series: a structured verdict for every team, a clear exit-round call, and the reasoning written out in full so readers can tell him exactly where he went wrong.

Articles by Tim Raven-Hill

Predicted LineupsGlobal22 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Monday 22 June
Three group stage fixtures land on Monday 22 June, with Argentina v Austria at AT&T Stadium the standout clash of the day. The headline selection calls: Messi stays in Argentina's 4-4-2, Mbappé leads France's attack against Iraq, and both New Zealand and Egypt reprise their opening-day XIs.
Predicted LineupsGlobal21 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Sunday 21 June, World Cup 2026
Five Group Stage matches land on Sunday, headlined by Spain's home-form test against Saudi Arabia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The sharpest selection calls include whether Curaçao can cope without two injured attackers against Ecuador, and whether Uruguay's flat form forces a tactical reset against Cape Verde Islands.
Predicted LineupsGlobal20 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Saturday 20 June — Brazil, Germany and the Day's Biggest XIs
Four Group Stage matches fill the Saturday slate, headlined by Brazil's second outing and a Germany side that has not dropped a point in five. We are keeping faith with the previous XIs across the board, with no injuries to force changes and form giving coaches every reason to stay the course.
Predicted LineupsGlobal19 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Friday 19 June
Three Group Stage matches land on Friday 19 June, with Mexico hosting South Korea at Estadio Akron, the USA facing Australia at Lumen Field, and Scotland taking on Morocco at Gillette Stadium. The headline selection call is whether Australia's 5-4-1 can contain a USA attack built around Christian Pulisic, while Morocco's settled 4-2-3-1 poses the biggest tactical puzzle for a Scotland side riding a three-game winning run.
Predicted LineupsGlobal18 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Thursday 18 June
Four matches, eight nations, and the group stage enters a critical stretch on 18 June, from Estadio Azteca all the way to BC Place. The headline calls: Colombia hold their 4-3-3, Dzeko earns a Bosnia start, and Canada trust the same XI that held Bosnia to a draw.
Predicted LineupsGlobal16 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Tuesday 16 June — France v Senegal Headlining a Packed Day
Three Group Stage fixtures fill Tuesday 16 June, from Iran v New Zealand at SoFi Stadium through to Iraq v Norway at Gillette Stadium. The headline selection call is France naming an unchanged 4-2-3-1 with Kylian Mbappé leading the line against Senegal, while Norway's Erling Haaland targets his first 2026 tournament goal against Iraq.
Predicted LineupsGlobal15 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Monday 15 June
Four 2026 tournament group stage matches fill Monday's schedule, from Sweden v Tunisia at the Estadio BBVA through to Saudi Arabia v Uruguay at Hard Rock Stadium. The headline call is Mohamed Salah leading Egypt's attack against Belgium, while Spain are set to name a near-identical XI to the one that beat Peru.
Predicted LineupsGlobal14 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Sunday 14 June — Five Group Stage Openers, Every Starting XI Called
From Gillette Stadium to Lincoln Financial Field, five 2026 World Cup group-stage fixtures kick off on Sunday 14 June, and we have named our expected XI for every single team. The headline calls: Germany go unchanged against Curaçao, Japan's in-form 3-4-2-1 faces its sternest test against the Netherlands, and Ivory Coast name a best-guess XI for their tournament opener against Ecuador.
Predicted LineupsGlobal13 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Saturday 13 June
Three Group Stage fixtures kick off the 2026 tournament's Saturday slate, headlined by Brazil's opener against Morocco at MetLife Stadium. The biggest selection calls centre on whether Dorival Júnior sticks with his settled 4-4-2 and whether Regragui trusts the same backline that shut out Norway.
Predicted LineupsGlobal12 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Friday 12 June
Two group stage openers land on Friday, with South Korea hosting Czech Republic at Estadio Akron and Canada welcoming Bosnia & Herzegovina to BMO Field. The headline calls: Son Heung-min leads South Korea's 3-4-2-1, while Alphonso Davies slots into a Canada back four that kept a clean sheet last time out.
Predicted LineupsGlobal10 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Mexico vs South Africa, Thursday 11 June
One match opens Thursday's 2026 tournament action at the Estadio Azteca, and the headline call is straightforward: Raúl Jiménez leads the line for Mexico while South Africa's Hugo Broos-era defensive block starts without a confirmed XI to anchor on. Here is exactly who we expect to see from kick-off.
AnalysisUruguay1 June 2026
Tournament Prediction: Uruguay
Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay arrive at the 2026 finals without Luis Suárez for the first time in two decades, asking a new generation to fill a goalscoring void no squad can simply absorb. The midfield is elite, the defensive structure is credible, but the forward line carries real uncertainty at exactly the moment the tournament demands answers.
AnalysisPanama1 June 2026
Tournament Prediction: Panama
Panama return to the finals for the first time since 2018, landing in a Group L that contains two top-20 nations and a physically formidable Ghana side. A 6-2 warm-up loss to Brazil on 31 May exposed structural defensive failures that could define a short, painful tournament.
AnalysisGhana31 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: Ghana
Ghana arrive at the 2026 finals carrying the weight of three consecutive group-stage eliminations and a squad selection that has already divided opinion back home. The Black Stars have the individual talent to compete in Group L, but cohesion, not quality, is the question that will define their campaign.
AnalysisCroatia31 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: Croatia
Croatia arrive at the summer tournament carrying the weight of two consecutive deep runs, a 2018 final and a 2022 semi-final, but with a squad that has visibly aged around its ageless captain. The central question is whether Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić have enough left to carry Croatia through a Group L gauntlet featuring England, and then survive the knockout rounds against faster, younger opponents.
AnalysisPortugal30 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: Portugal
Portugal arrive at the 2026 finals ranked first in a leading tournament simulation model, carrying the heaviest expectations of any European side. The tension is structural: Bruno Fernandes is producing the best creative season of his career, yet the defensive spine behind him is visibly ageing and dangerously thin.
AnalysisAustria30 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: Austria
Austria land in arguably the harshest group of the 2026 finals, drawing defending champions Argentina alongside Algeria and Jordan. Ralf Rangnick's pressing system has rebuilt this squad into a credible European outfit, but Group J will expose exactly how far that rebuild has gone.
AnalysisAustralia29 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: Australia
Tony Popovic's Socceroos arrive at the summer tournament with defensive organisation as their primary currency, but a record of one win from their last five competitive internationals raises serious questions about whether they can manufacture enough goals to matter. Group D pits them against tournament co-hosts USA and a well-drilled Türkiye side, meaning the margin for tactical error is almost zero.
AnalysisTunisia29 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: Tunisia
Tunisia arrive at the 2026 finals having not conceded a single goal across their qualifying campaign, a record that demands respect but masks a stark quality gap against the three opponents waiting in Group F. The Carthage Eagles carry genuine defensive pedigree and a world-class set-piece operator in Wahbi Khazri, but the Netherlands, Sweden, and Japan represent a combined test that their squad, built on domestic solidity, is not equipped to pass.
AnalysisNew Zealand29 May 2026
Tournament Prediction: New Zealand
New Zealand arrive at the 2026 finals having qualified through the OFC pathway and an intercontinental playoff process, a record that speaks to steady progress but not genuine continental force. Placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and Iran, the All Whites face a bracket that will demand near-perfect defensive execution just to avoid embarrassment.