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Tournament Predictions

Tim Raven-Hill

Tournament forecaster. Covers all 48 nations ahead of the 2026 tournament with probabilistic verdicts and no escape routes.

Tim Raven-Hill has been building tournament prediction models since 2010, when a spreadsheet he made for a work sweepstake got more accurate as the rounds progressed. He has been refining the methodology ever since.

His approach combines squad depth analysis, recent competitive form, historical tournament data, and, in his own words, "the coefficient of bottling it under pressure". He insists this last variable is measurable. His colleagues are not fully convinced but the track record is hard to dismiss.

For the 2026 tournament, Tim is covering all 48 nations in the Gegenpresss Tournament Prediction series: a structured verdict for every team, a clear exit-round call, and the reasoning written out in full so readers can tell him exactly where he went wrong.

Articles by Tim Raven-Hill

Predicted LineupsGlobal10 July 2026
Predicted Lineups: Spain v Belgium, Friday 10 July
One quarter-final on the card today at SoFi Stadium, and it is a heavyweight collision: Spain, in relentless form, host a Belgium side forced into changes by a damaging injury list. The headline calls are De Bruyne returning to orchestrate Belgium's midfield and Rodri anchoring a Spain engine room that has not skipped a beat.
Predicted LineupsGlobal9 July 2026
Predicted Lineups: France v Morocco, Thursday 9 July
One quarter-final stands between both nations and the last four: France, five wins from five, host Morocco at Gillette Stadium in what looks like the fixture of the round. The headline call is straightforward: Kylian Mbappé leads the line in an unchanged French XI, while Walid Regragui keeps faith with the same 4-2-3-1 that eliminated Canada.
Predicted LineupsGlobal6 July 2026
Predicted Lineups: Monday 6 July
Two Round of 16 ties fill the Monday slate: Mexico host England at the Estadio Azteca and Portugal take on Spain in the day's marquee Iberian clash. The headline calls are Stones replacing the injured Quansah in England's backline and Portugal naming an unchanged XI after beating Croatia.
Predicted LineupsGlobal5 July 2026
Predicted Lineups: Brazil v Norway, Sunday 5 July
One Round of 16 blockbuster lands at MetLife Stadium tonight, and we have our predicted XIs locked in. The headline calls: Vinicius Junior leads Brazil's attack with Neymar unavailable, while Erling Haaland starts for a Norway side that arrives with momentum.
Predicted LineupsGlobal3 July 2026
Predicted Lineups: Friday 3 July — Switzerland, Australia and Argentina Step Into the Round of 32
Three Round of 32 fixtures light up Friday as Switzerland face Algeria at BC Place, Australia take on Egypt at AT&T Stadium, and Argentina open their knockout campaign against Cape Verde Islands at Hard Rock Stadium. The headline calls: Messi returns to the Argentina XI, Mahrez leads Algeria's attack despite their patchy form, and Australia's three-centre-back system stays intact after the Italiano injury.
Predicted LineupsGlobal2 July 2026
Predicted Lineups: Thursday 2 July — Who Starts as the Round of 32 Heats Up
Three World Cup matches land on Thursday 2 July, with USA forced into attacking reshuffle with Pulišić potentially unavailable due to reported fitness concerns, Spain expected to name an unchanged side against Austria, and Cristiano Ronaldo leading Portugal out at BMO Field against Croatia. These are the starting XIs we back.
Predicted LineupsGlobal30 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Tuesday 30 June
Three Round of 32 fixtures light up Tuesday, with Netherlands facing Morocco at Estadio BBVA, Ivory Coast hosting Norway at AT&T Stadium, and France taking on Sweden at MetLife Stadium. The headline selection call is whether Didier Deschamps sticks with his four-match winning formula against a Sweden side whose inconsistent form — one win in their last four — invites French confidence.
Predicted LineupsGlobal29 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Monday 29 June
Two Round of 32 fixtures light up Monday, with Brazil facing Japan at NRG Stadium and Germany taking on Paraguay at Gillette Stadium. The headline calls are Vinicius Junior leading Brazil's attack should Neymar and Raphinha remain unavailable, and Germany naming an unchanged back three after reported defensive fitness concerns around N. Brown and N. Schlotterbeck force Thiaw into the starting frame.
Predicted LineupsGlobal28 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Sunday 28 June, From Arrowhead to SoFi
Three matches, six teams, and some genuine selection calls to make: Algeria must cope without Amoura, Canada are shorn of Koné and Jones, and South Africa need to fill the Mokoena void heading into the knockout round. We break down every starting XI we expect to see on Sunday 28 June, built from confirmed tournament squads and current form.
Predicted LineupsGlobal27 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Saturday 27 June
Eight Group Stage 3 fixtures hit the pitch on Saturday 27 June, with Spain, England, Portugal, and Belgium all in action as the group phase reaches its decisive final round. The headline selection calls: Belgium face a potential Jérémy Doku fitness doubt and we expect Alexis Saelemaekers to fill that right-side berth if he is unavailable, while Uruguay must again find a way to compensate for the absent De Arrascaeta and Araújo without disrupting a shape that has already cost them in this group.
Predicted LineupsGlobal26 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Friday 26 June
Four group stage matches wrap up the round on Friday, with Norway v France at Gillette Stadium the standout fixture and Senegal forced into a potential goalkeeper change with Édouard Mendy reported as unavailable. We have called every starting XI from the confirmed tournament squads, anchored on each team's last outing.
Predicted LineupsGlobal25 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Thursday 25 June — Every Starting XI for Matchday 3
Six matches, twelve teams, and everything on the line as the 2026 tournament's group stage reaches its decisive third round. The headline calls: Japan reshuffle their attack without Kubo and Machino, while Thalente Mbatha steps up to cover for Mokoena, reported as a fitness doubt for South Africa.
Predicted LineupsGlobal24 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Wednesday 24 June — Scotland v Brazil Headlines a Five-Game World Cup Slate
Five matches hit the 2026 tournament schedule on Wednesday 24 June, from Colombia wrapping up Group Stage - 2 against Congo DR to Scotland's must-survive assignment against Brazil at Hard Rock Stadium. The headline selection calls are Canada replacing the injured Ismael Koné, Bosnia & Herzegovina patching their back four without Tino Muharemović, and Brazil keeping faith with the same XI that beat Haiti.
Predicted LineupsGlobal23 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Tuesday 23 June — Five Matches, Every Starting XI Called
Five Group Stage fixtures hit the pitch on Tuesday 23 June, from Norway v Senegal at MetLife Stadium through to Panama v Croatia at BMO Field. The headline calls: Portugal keep faith with Ronaldo and the 4-2-3-1 that dismantled Congo DR, while England are expected to name an unchanged side after three straight wins.
Predicted LineupsGlobal22 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Monday 22 June
Three group stage fixtures land on Monday 22 June, with Argentina v Austria at AT&T Stadium the standout clash of the day. The headline selection calls: Messi stays in Argentina's 4-4-2, Mbappé leads France's attack against Iraq, and both New Zealand and Egypt reprise their opening-day XIs.
Predicted LineupsGlobal21 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Sunday 21 June, World Cup 2026
Five Group Stage matches land on Sunday, headlined by Spain's home-form test against Saudi Arabia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The sharpest selection calls include whether Curaçao can cope without two injured attackers against Ecuador, and whether Uruguay's flat form forces a tactical reset against Cape Verde Islands.
Predicted LineupsGlobal20 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Saturday 20 June — Brazil, Germany and the Day's Biggest XIs
Four Group Stage matches fill the Saturday slate, headlined by Brazil's second outing and a Germany side that has not dropped a point in five. We are keeping faith with the previous XIs across the board, with no injuries to force changes and form giving coaches every reason to stay the course.
Predicted LineupsGlobal19 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Friday 19 June
Three Group Stage matches land on Friday 19 June, with Mexico hosting South Korea at Estadio Akron, the USA facing Australia at Lumen Field, and Scotland taking on Morocco at Gillette Stadium. The headline selection call is whether Australia's 5-4-1 can contain a USA attack built around Christian Pulisic, while Morocco's settled 4-2-3-1 poses the biggest tactical puzzle for a Scotland side riding a three-game winning run.
Predicted LineupsGlobal18 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Thursday 18 June
Four matches, eight nations, and the group stage enters a critical stretch on 18 June, from Estadio Azteca all the way to BC Place. The headline calls: Colombia hold their 4-3-3, Dzeko earns a Bosnia start, and Canada trust the same XI that held Bosnia to a draw.
Predicted LineupsGlobal16 June 2026
Predicted Lineups: Tuesday 16 June — France v Senegal Headlining a Packed Day
Three Group Stage fixtures fill Tuesday 16 June, from Iran v New Zealand at SoFi Stadium through to Iraq v Norway at Gillette Stadium. The headline selection call is France naming an unchanged 4-2-3-1 with Kylian Mbappé leading the line against Senegal, while Norway's Erling Haaland targets his first 2026 tournament goal against Iraq.