Tournament forecaster. Covers all 48 nations ahead of the 2026 tournament with probabilistic verdicts and no escape routes.
Tim Raven-Hill has been building tournament prediction models since 2010, when a spreadsheet he made for a work sweepstake got more accurate as the rounds progressed. He has been refining the methodology ever since.
His approach combines squad depth analysis, recent competitive form, historical tournament data, and, in his own words, "the coefficient of bottling it under pressure". He insists this last variable is measurable. His colleagues are not fully convinced but the track record is hard to dismiss.
For the 2026 tournament, Tim is covering all 48 nations in the Gegenpresss Tournament Prediction series: a structured verdict for every team, a clear exit-round call, and the reasoning written out in full so readers can tell him exactly where he went wrong.